Hispanics are Swing Vote in Midterm Elections

Poll Shows Power of Hispanics as Swing Vote in Midterm Elections

WASHINGTON, April 23, 1998 -- Underscoring the growing Hispanic clout at the ballot box, former Clinton administration official Henry Cisneros released a survey today showing Hispanics becoming a swing vote in this year's elections and in upcoming presidential contests.

Cisneros said the bipartisan survey and a day-long Power of the Hispanic Vote conference were designed to persuade Washington-based political consultants, pollsters and campaign advisers to take Hispanic voters into account.

"This is a first time effort to really bring to the attention of the underlying infrastructure of campaigns in America the importance of the Latino vote," Cisneros said in an interview.

"If we can get it into the brains of the people who are making the strategic decisions for both parties and for the candidates' campaigns that this is something to think about, then they will communicate with Latinos and help integrate Latinos into the mainstream of politics," Cisneros said.

Cisneros, who served as housing secretary during Clinton's first term and was one of the administration's most prominent Hispanics, left the Cabinet to head Univision Communications Inc. The Los Angeles-based company, the nation's leading Spanish-language television broadcaster, sponsored the survey of 755 Hispanics who are eligible to vote.

Cisneros said political strategists have neglected Hispanics because "we have just now begun to achieve critical mass."

"We're now seeing that the numbers will matter," he said.

Cisneros said that 208 of the 271 electoral votes needed to win the presidency are located in 10 states with large Latino populations, including California, Florida, Illinois, New Jersey, New York and Texas.

"We have within our reach the ability to influence 70 percent of the votes needed to elect the president," Cisneros said. "That's very powerful and more and more candidates are recognizing it."

The survey was done by Mark Penn, president of Penn, Schoen & Berland Associates, a polling firm that works for Clinton; and Michael K. Deaver, a former Reagan administration official who is now vice chairman of the public relations firm Edelman Worldwide.

"Hispanics provide a crucial swing vote in some of the nation's biggest states," Penn said.

Analysts said that anti-immigrant ballot propositions on the ballot in California in 1994, 1996 and again this June, as well as actions by the Republican-led Congress, have alienated Hispanic voters from the Republican Party.

Hispanic voters staged "an astounding increase in turnout" to boost their share of the vote from 2 percent of the electorate in 1992 to 5 percent in 1996, Penn said.

Long a constituency responsive to Republicans as well as Democrats, Penn said that Hispanics have now shifted their loyalty to Democrats.

Hispanic support helped Clinton carry Arizona -- won for the first time by a Democrat since 1948 -- and Florida -- won by a Democrat for the first time since 1976.

Joe Goode, who worked with Clinton pollster Stanley Greenberg during the president's first term, said Hispanic voters hold the key to this fall's campaign.

"If Democrats are going to have any hope of winning the House back, it is going to be with the support of Hispanic voters," Goode said.

Fifty two of the nation's 435 congressional districts have more than 100,000 Hispanic constituents, with 17 of the 52 districts represented by Republicans.

Goode said that Hispanic voters could mean victory for Democrats in Illinois, where Sen. Carol Moseley-Braun seeks a second term; in New York, where the party is giving Republican Sen. Alfonse D'Amato a stiff challenge; and in California, where Sen. Barbara Boxer seeks a second term.

"This is where a huge Hispanic turnout and maximizing the Democratic base make all the difference in the world," Goode said.

But Republicans challenged the Democrats' claim to Hispanic voters.

Texas Gov. George W. Bush, a Republican who is running for a second term, is expected to draw more than 40 percent of the Hispanic vote in the November election. Bush's approval rating among Hispanic voters in the state stands at 81 percent, according to recent surveys.

Rep. Henry Bonilla, R-Texas, said his efforts to reach out to Hispanics as co-chairman of the Republican Party's New Majority Council are designed to underscore the inherent appeal of GOP issues to Hispanic voters.

"Hispanic issues are American issues," Bonilla said, adding that too often Republican strategists bypass Hispanic voters because they suspect "we vote on the basis of skin color."

Bonilla added: "People like that are wrong."

Bonilla said that GOP support for low taxes, less government regulation, family values and opposition to abortion appeal to Hispanic voters.

Deaver lamented that the survey showed that Hispanic voters continue to prefer Democratic candidates and Democrats' policies over Republican proposals.

Deaver said the divided GOP has to decide whether it favors policies that appeal to Hispanics, such as bilingual education, affirmative action and admissions preferences for college.

"Why can't the Republicans be loyal to their agenda and reach out to the Hispanic voters," Deaver told the conference. The GOP has to "let them know that they care about them and that they have issues in common."

The survey results were drawn from a poll conducted April 5-18 in seven of the nation's largest metropolitan areas, including Chicago, Dallas, Houston, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, San Antonio and San Francisco.